Soccer Betting is a series of articles describing some well-known and well-used statistical techniques that will help the soccer bettor make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article, we will describe in detail how a particular method works, giving you enough information so that you can go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information on where you can already find websites that use this technique to include their weekly football betting tips.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you make a better decision about the match or matches you are betting on.

In this article we will describe the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for English football pools and attempts to eliminate matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches to choose your 8 out of 11 from. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the website Original from Footyforecast (now 1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the simple sequence method described in another of our articles in this series.

These are the basic rules…

For each team, calculate the following: 1. Calculate the total number of points scored in the last N games. 2. Calculate the maximum number of points possible for the last N games. 3. Divide the total number of points earned by the maximum available and multiply by 100. 4. Calculate the expected value. In (1) and (2) the N games above could be all home games for the home team and all away games for the visiting team. Alternatively, N could be the last N games, including all home and away games for a team. The forecast value is calculated like this…

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for the home team in the last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for the visiting team in the last N games

HOMEVAL=(HOMEPOINTS/(POINTSFORWIN*N))*100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (START VALUE + (100 – ABSENCE VALUE)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method, the value is compared to the following… 1. A forecast value of 50 = draw. 2. A value between 50 and 100 increases the chances of winning at home the closer it gets to 100. 3. A value between 50 and 0 increases the chances of winning away from home the closer it gets to 0. There are a few variables to consider For example, the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or home only for the home team and away only for the away team, to name just two. You may want to experiment with these values. By plotting the actual resulting ties against the forecast, it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any value between these thresholds is likely to be a tie. All matches outside of these thresholds will be less likely to be tied. For example, a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean that any game between 41 and 59 can be drawn. What this method does, with careful user tuning, is remove many matches that won’t be drawn, giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used when an English fund plan is to be used.

Here’s a worked example…

The values ​​shown are the points won by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent games, of course you can choose more games to base your calculations on. West Ham H4 = 3 (oldest match) H3 = 1 H2 = 1 H1 = 0 (most recent match) Leeds Utd A4 = 1 (oldest match) A3 = 3 A2 = 0 A1 = 3 (most recent match) Use only home games for the home team and only away games for the away team… FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42 FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59 FFPForcast = (42 + (100 – 59)) / 2 = 42 If our threshold values ​​are 40 and 60, then for this match the prediction is in the expected draw region and in the bottom end, meaning if it’s not a draw, the other most likely outcome would be an away win. This can be interpreted as an X2 prediction, ie draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now is your turn…

Of course, you can choose to use different values ​​than the ones shown above, and by experimenting you can find better values ​​to use. You can also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and road games for the visiting team. You can choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it useful to compare the actual results with the predictions from the Footyforecast method to see how many actual ties fall into the road win, tie, and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills, you can go ahead and create your own data spreadsheet or even write a piece of software to get results and props and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you’re lazy like me, you could get some free software that already does this for you. 1X2Monster and Footyforecast have been offering this type of service since 1999. A total of seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each match played in each league, and a full record is kept of how each method is performed for each match. In addition to how each tip performed within its respective league, 1X2Monster also provides the leaderboards for how each league has performed in successfully predicting game outcomes. Prediction Performance League Tables are produced for Home Win Predictions, Draw Predictions, Away Win Predictions and for General Predictions and are invaluable tools for soccer bettors when deciding where to target their soccer betting predictions. european soccer.

Here is a list of all articles in this series…

Football Betting – How To Profit Football Betting – The Rateform Method Football Betting – The Footyforecast Method Football Betting – The Win-Draw-Lose Method Football Betting – The Simple Sequence Method Football Betting – The Prediction Method Soccer Betting: The Method of Superiority